The road safety phenomenon. Paper presented at the OECD Workshop B3 "Infrastructure design and road safety", 15-18 November 1994, Prague (Czech Republic).

Central and East European Countries (CEECs) are faced with the enormous task of implementing political, economic and social changes in converting their centrally controlled planned economy to a market economy. Transport and infrastructure are of vital importance in bringing about these changes and achieving economic growth. Economic growth will lead to increased prosperity and to a rise in the number of private cars owned. Once economic growth is established, this will also result in increased mobility: more transportation of goods, including by road, and higher mileage by private motorists. Unless the road system is expanded and the quality of the existing road system improved, major problems will arise: capacity problems that lead to less efficient use of the infrastructure and hence to economic losses and problems relating to nature and the environment, various difficulties (such as through traffic passing through small towns and villages, city centres congested with cars) and more accidents and casualties. If it is assumed that the recent political and economic changes in CEECs result in (tremendous) economic growth and thereby in a further increase in mobility (a 'catching up' action), then extra effort will be needed to decrease the fatality rate. The extent to which this succeeds will determine the developments in road safety in CEECs. However, present indications give cause for concern. The number of casualties has risen in the last few years in the various countries and CEECs already score badly on various counts (number of casualties per inhabitant and per kilometre). In this contribution it is assumed that this is in fact the case. Without in-depth analysis of road safety and of the developments that affect it in the countries mentioned and without knowledge about their administrative system and administrative culture, one should not be tempted to formulate recommendations as to how road safety can best be improved in these countries. It is possible, however, to indicate the extent to which the policy pursued in highly motorised countries has helped the improvement of road safety. For the most part this will need to be a qualitative evaluation. It is also possible, using present knowledge, to indicate what could have happened in the past in western countries in order to achieve better results. Both of these aspects are examined: what policy has been pursued in highly motorised countries, especially in the field of infrastructure, and what is the result of this and also what could have happened that would have produced better results. CEECs could then judge for themselves what is applicable for them